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Abstract

Buildings and construction are the single largest contributor to annual carbon emissions globally, accounting for 40% considering the direct and indirect impact. While emissions come from across the lifecycle of a building project, the current mainstream interventions are relatively imbalanced. While there is a higher focus on energy efficiency, the use of renewable energy, and tech-enabled energy savings, very little progress has been made on investing and scaling sustainable architectural design that integrates natural materials.
Particularly in the global South, where 80% of the building demand is expected to come by the year 2030, there is a conflict between this demand and the lack of regulations for building projects. Design-based interventions, such as sustainable architecture and the utilization of natural and new construction materials with lower embodied carbon, have a significantly high probability (~90%) of enabling baseline reduction of carbon emissions from buildings and construction.

However, a vast majority of observed business models for sustainable architecture and natural materials are yet to be operationally viable. This is a result of imbalanced investments in the industry where most have focused on the management of existing buildings rather than on sustainable design. The brightest minds from design and business need to come together to give buildings the highest potential of achieving the net zero target by 2050.

Sustainable Development Goals Chart

Main Highlights

Carbon life cycle for buildings and construction
● Floor area from buildings to increase by 20% by 2030, about 80% in the global South
● Buildings and infrastructure account for 40% of all global carbon emissions every year

Focus areas to reduce baseline carbon emissions from buildings
● Important factor in carbon demand for buildings is a poorly designed building envelope
● Global share of LED lighting has grown from 5% in 2013 to almost 50% in 2021
● Concrete, steel, and aluminum account for one-fourth of global carbon emissions

Scaling sustainable architectural design in the global South
● Global South – demand for buildings is high but, in many regions, still lacks the regulations to enable net zero-carbon buildings
● Lack of operationally viable and proven business models – the biggest barrier to scale and adoption of sustainable architectural design
● An investment of time and financial resources by larger corporations is needed – who generally have the experience of scaling solutions

Impact of sustainable architectural design
● Interventions at the design phase of a construction project has the capacity to reduce its carbon emissions by 90%
● Start with a milestone of halving building emissions by the year 2030
● Use high demand for buildings in global South to build sustainable living spaces

A systems perspective on sustainable architectural design
● Rising population, economic growth, and evolving lifestyles are the socioeconomic drivers of demand for buildings and construction
● To realize the net zero carbon building goal of 2050, investments need to be more balanced towards all phases of a building project
● The brightest minds from the design world and the business world need to collaborate for net zero buildings to become mainstream

Case Overview

Buildings and infrastructure account for 40% of all global carbon emissions every year. This accounts for all direct and indirect emissions. Nearly 70% of the emissions from buildings and infrastructure (also referred to as ‘other construction industry’) come from operations while 30% arises from the production and use of construction materials and processes.

The floor area in buildings is estimated to increase by an average of 20% by 2030. A vast majority of this growth (~80%) is expected to come from countries with developing or emerging economies. To move towards the Net Zero scenario outlined by the IEA, the building sector’s energy consumption must come down by 35% by 2030. Interventions for both existing buildings and new buildings are needed – to enable a sector-wide shift in the way buildings are designed, built, and operated.

Figure 1. Annual global carbon emissions, with highlights from buildings and infrastructure. Photo Credit: Architecture 2030

Carbon Life Cycle for Buildings and Construction

To apply relevant interventions for decarbonizing buildings, it is important to understand a building (or construction) project’s life cycle that showcases the scope and definition of carbon emissions. (See Figure 2 below).

Based on the life cycle of carbon for a building project, use-stage embodied carbon and operational carbon account for 27% of all carbon emissions; while embodied carbon, upfront carbon, and end-of-life carbon account for 6% of all carbon emissions; and 7% is in the infrastructure sector.

The most popular approaches for net zero carbon buildings focus on the use of renewable energy (through on-site production and import), energy efficiency (such as the use of LED for lighting or appliances with a healthy energy rating), and offsetting carbon emissions (such as purchasing carbon credits). However, reducing the baseline emissions must be prioritized because they would have the highest impact towards net zero, across the lifecycle of carbon for a building project.

Figure 2. Life cycle of carbon in a building (or construction) project. Photo Credit: World Green Building Council

Focus Areas to Reduce Baseline Carbon Emissions from Buildings

The approach of reducing baseline carbon emissions from buildings (and construction) starts from the architectural philosophy and design for a building.
This involves planning and decisions around:

1. Location of the building (i.e., renovated, new land, etc.)
2. Architectural design of the building (i.e., lighting, ventilation, etc.)
3. Materials for construction(i.e., natural, cement, upcycled, recycled, etc.)
4. Resources (i.e., energy, labor, etc.)

Figure 3. Opportunities to reduce baseline carbon from the stage of the design process. Photo Credit: World Green Building Council

These decisions are made by building owners in association with the architecture and construction companies on the project. Regional policies and regulations also have an important role to play in design considerations.

One of the most important factors in carbon demand for buildings is a poorly designed building envelope. However, it is one of the areas of intervention (for net zero carbon buildings), where little progress has been made – even as heating and cooling demands have increased worldwide. So, efficient cross-ventilation and passive heating/cooling of buildings continue to lack mainstream focus for reducing baseline carbon.

In comparison to the challenges with thermal comfort (due to poorly designed building envelopes), energy-efficient lighting (such as LED) is more mainstream. The global share of LED lighting has grown from 5% in 2013 to almost 50% in 2021. That said, this trend is primarily driven by large-scale adoption in advanced economies in the global North (the United States, Europe). Therefore, natural lighting as an intervention will require more attention toward decreasing baseline carbon. By diversifying sustainable lighting strategies, we can enhance energy efficiency and environmental impact in a broader global context.

In addition, it is crucial to recognize that three conventional construction materials, namely concrete, steel, and aluminum, contribute to approximately 25% of global carbon emissions. This figure highlights the need to explore and draw inspiration from buildings constructed with natural materials like rammed earth, lime, and terracotta, which have stood the test of time since the pre-industrial era, presenting significant opportunities for sustainable design and construction practices.

In contrast to the global North where sustainability regulations encompass green building certifications like LEED, the global South faces a lack of contextual benchmarks tailored to the diverse countries. With rising population and high-density settlements, governments often prioritize the economic aspects of buildings over sustainable design. Compounded by issues of corruption in the construction industry and the scarcity of land, sustainable design is not a prevalent priority amidst the various socio-political and economic realities.

Based on the trends in net zero carbon in buildings and construction, the most significant focus areas for intervention are:

Scaling Sustainable Architectural Design in the Global South

Architectural planning and design – the very first steps of building (and construction) projects – has the biggest potential for reducing carbon baseline carbon for both residential and commercial buildings. However, sustainable architectural design is not yet mainstream, especially in the global South, where there is a high demand for buildings but a lack of widespread regulations and stringent building codes that promote the construction of net-zero carbon buildings.

The lack of operationally viable and proven business models is the biggest barrier to the scale and adoption of sustainable architectural design. This is a solvable challenge that needs investment and iterations so that it can be resolved over time.

Consider the example of Aerofoil Facades from Ant Studio in India. It is a natural, mechanical ventilation solution that enables cooling by reducing the amount of heat entering a building. Its installation results in a natural temperature drop of 15% and capital expenditure savings of 22%.

Despite its value proposition, the Aerofoil Façade is yet to move beyond its pilot projects. The main challenge cited by the team is the manufacturing logistics of the facades, which is currently not efficient enough. As a result, the current real-world impact of the Aerofoil Facade (on reducing carbon emissions from buildings) is negligible.

Retrofitted Aerofoil Façade in a residential building in India. Photo Credit: Ant Studio

Here are a few more examples of sustainable architectural design and materials from the global South, with varying levels of impact and challenges to scale:

From an impact and scale standpoint, Carbon Craft from India is a clear example of a business model that is already in the process of scaling, demonstrating the potential for widespread adoption of sustainable architectural solutions. In comparison, standalone philanthropic projects offer a great model for creating awareness (about sustainable architecture) and reaching marginalized communities but prove to be the hardest to scale.

However, for newer products with unproven track records, logistical challenges, or operating on a boutique scale, their specific challenges can be realistically addressed through relevant partnerships, adapting methodologies to new contexts, and implementing improved go-to-market strategies. These approaches can help overcome barriers and pave the way for their successful implementation and scalability in the future.

By directly working with high-potential innovations in sustainable architectural design, or concepts and methods offered by them, it is possible to reduce the baseline carbon emissions at scale in the global South. This requires an investment of time and financial resources by larger corporations – particularly in architecture and building – who have experience in scaling solutions, from the ground up.

Impact Statement

Without concrete actions and regulations, global carbon emissions from buildings and construction are likely to continue to rise as the sector swells, particularly in regions experiencing population growth and urbanization. Without intervention, this growth could result in increased energy consumption, resource depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions.

In the context of increasing demand for buildings, particularly in the global South, interventions are needed for new and existing buildings. Commonly prevalent business models (in the global South) for sustainable architecture and materials have challenges that need to be addressed through corporate partnerships and investments. This requires a shift in early-stage investment trends, which are currently strongly inclined toward energy efficiency and technology.

It is important to consider that solutions that involve scaling sustainable architectural design and building materials have the highest potential for reducing baseline carbon emissions from buildings and construction.

Climate action through sustainable architectural design

Interventions at the design phase of a construction project have a 90% probability of reducing carbon emissions. By scaling such design-based solutions, the net zero carbon building goal of 2050 becomes a reality, starting with a milestone of halving these emissions by the year 2030.

Sustainably designed and built residential and commercial spaces

The buildings sector is expected to grow by 20% by 2030, with 80% of this demand coming from the global South. Using this demand for buildings to design and build sustainable spaces will positively impact how communities thrive in new and existing buildings.

Material and business model innovation in buildings and construction

Investment in research and development for new sustainable building materials along with iterations to design-based business models can positively disrupt the conventional practices of buildings and construction. Such sectoral innovation is important to challenge the current status quo – to enable outcomes like the LED lighting business – which scaled from 5% to 50% market share in less than a decade.

With the ones in between – newer products that are yet to be proven, those having logistical challenges, and those operating as a boutique– their challenges can be realistically addressed through relevant partnerships, replication of methodologies in a new context, and better go-to-market strategies. On the other hand, standalone philanthropic projects, while effective in creating awareness and reaching marginalized communities, face greater challenges in terms of scalability.

Indicative of its systematic nature, sustainable architectural design hitS numerous SDGs:

#8: Decent Work and Economic Growth (increase value and job opportunities to local economies);
#9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure (through the innovation challenges, the new industry created through integrated design and construction processes);
#10: Reduced Inequalities (through inclusionary job creation);
#11: Sustainable Cities and communities (through addressing the problem of waste and excess carbon emissions from construction industry and buildings life cycle);
#12: Responsible Consumption and Production (through integration of materials and processes that close the loop on buildings);
#13: Climate Action (through reducing carbon emissions from built environment);
#15: Life on Land (less resource depletion)

Systems Perspective

Rising population, economic growth, and evolving lifestyles are the socioeconomic drivers of demand for buildings and construction. Even though the current share of energy demand in advanced economies in the global North is higher, the rate of this demand and related emissions is growing much faster in emerging economies in the global South (Asia, Africa, South America).

Interventions to reduce carbon emissions are available across different stages of a building project. Currently, there is a disproportionate investment in solutions that have a lower probability of reducing baseline carbon emissions. Examples of this include tech-enabled building management solutions, and the use, and import of renewable energy. These approaches enable a reduction in carbon footprint but are often deployed in the context of poor architectural design that increases baseline demand for energy for needs such as ventilation, lighting, heating, and cooling.

To realize the net zero carbon building goal of 2050 (to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius), investments need to be more balanced towards all phases of a building project – particularly design that has a 90% probability of reducing carbon emissions. But this shift in trend will happen as more operationally viable business models are proven. This is the biggest challenge – particularly for sustainable architectural design, which is yet to find mainstream positioning in the global South.

Figure 4. How to get the right information to stakeholders at the right phase of the built environment process life cycle to facilitate maximum decarbonization through systems thinking. Photo Credit: UNEP

Larger enterprises involved in architectural design and building have an important role in making net zero carbon buildings mainstream. For example, Japan’s Nikken Sekkei is re-imagining the way buildings get designed and built. They have the opportunity to not just deliver net zero building projects at scale, but also establish a new norm of how green building certifications are framed. At the same time, the active micro-level solutions in the global South market offer new perspectives and approaches for larger business models – so that they can form partnerships (or even acquisitions) towards reducing building carbon emissions, at scale.

When it comes to scale, not every venture has to scale to millions of people. Replicability of solutions and exchange of models or frameworks for enabling net zero carbon buildings are identifiers of scale. For instance, if today 10% of boutique architecture design studios in the global South are driven by sustainable design, this percentage increasing to 50% is also an indication of scale, where each venture is reducing carbon emissions from their own building projects. The global South is home to many such architecture studios that have opportunities to design sustainable buildings.

Interestingly, a lot of traditional (pre-industrial) methods of building –including the use of rammed earth, lime, terracotta– and construction come from the global South. Design-based ventures are taking inspiration from such traditional approaches to create natural and sustainable building projects. Whereas, a few others are building on top of new material science to create carbon-negative materials that can be considered for building projects. For net zero carbon building to become a reality, the brightest minds from the design world and the business world need to collaborate, so that net zero buildings become mainstream.

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