1. OECDは、2060年までの政策シナリオを考察する「Global Plastics Outlook」の第2部を公表した。プラスチックの使用量や廃棄物、環境への影響など、一連のまとまった予測を盛り込んでいる。

2. 既定路線(BAU)のシナリオでは、2019年から2060年の間に、水生環境へのプラスチックの漏出量が倍増すると予測されている。本報告書では、国際協力に支えられたプラスチックのライフサイクルの全段階に対応する政策により、漏出量を大幅に削減できることを示している。

3. 最も包括的で効果的な政策パッケージでも実施コストは限定的としているが、財政支援のための国際的なメカニズムが必要となるであろう。




誤って処理された廃棄物はほぼゼロになる(ベースラインシナリオの153 Mtから6 Mtに減少)。環境への漏出も大幅に抑制され、ベースラインと比較して85%減少する。マクロプラスチックの漏出は、水生環境も含めてほぼ完全になくなるが、マイクロプラスチックの漏出はベースラインの予測に比べて9%しか減少しない。


レポートダウンロードリンク: https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/

Jul 30, 2022

Plastics Policy Scenarios to 2060 (OECD report)


【Main Points】

1. The OECD has published the second part of its Global Plastics Outlook, which looks at Policy Scenarios to 2060. It explores a set of coherent projections, including plastics use and waste as well as the environmental impacts.

2. Under a business-as-usual scenario, leakage of plastics into aquatic environments is projected to double between 2019 and 2060. The report shows that with policies addressing all the lifecycle stages of plastics, supported by international cooperation, leakage could be substantially reduced.

3. The costs for the most comprehensive and effective policy package are found to be modest, but international mechanisms for financial support will be needed.


The Global Ambition policy package could reduce plastics use and waste by a third below the Baseline and almost completely eliminate plastic leakage to the environment by 2060. The reductions in use and waste would largely be achieved through a tax on plastics that increases to USD 750/tonne globally by 2030 and to USD 1500/tonne by 2060, and a tax on packaging that is one-third higher.

Recycling would increase to almost 60%, becoming the most common waste management option. Meanwhile, the market share of secondary plastics would surge to 41% by 2060, primarily due to important pull policies such as increased recycled content targets.

Mismanaged waste would fall to near zero (6 Mt, down from 153 Mt in the Baseline scenario). Leakage to the environment is also substantially curbed, falling by 85% compared to the Baseline. Macroplastic leakage is almost completely eliminated, including to aquatic environments, though microplastic leakage is only reduced by 9% compared to Baseline projections.

The Global Ambition package is projected to reduce emissions by 2.1 Gt CO2e, underlining the positive impact of circular policies on achieving climate goals.

Report download: https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/